用能源预算模型进行环境风险评估:两种不同复杂度的模型之间的比较
Carlo Romoli1, Tjalling Jager2, Marie Trijau1
1Ibacon, Roßdorf, Germany.
Environmental toxicology and chemistry
|December 5, 2023
概括
生态风险评估 (ERA) 从毒动力学-毒动力学 (TKTD) 模型中获益. 两种不同复杂度的TKTD模型的比较显示出相似的性能,这表明模型选择取决于可用性和灵活性,而不仅仅是预测准确性.
科学领域:
- 环境毒理学环境毒理学
- 生态风险评估评估生态风险评估
- 化学安全 化学安全 化学安全
背景情况:
- 将实验室化学效应推断到真实环境中是生态风险评估 (ERA) 中的一个关键挑战.
- 从动态能源预算 (DEB) 理论衍生出的毒动力学-毒动力学 (TKTD) 模型为弥合这一差距提供了解决方案.
- TKTD模型复杂性对监管ERA的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较两个不同复杂度的DEB-TKTD模型的性能.
- 评估模型校准使用标准测试数据和预测在时间变量的曝光下.
- 为选择适当的TKTD模型进行化学风险评估提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用了两个DEB-TKTD模型:一个标准的DEB模型,主要参数和一个简化的DEBkiss模型,复合参数.
- 协调的建模选择,以便进行一致的比较.
- 在标准毒性测试数据上校准模型,并对未经测试的暴露场景进行了预测.
主要成果:
- 这两种DEB-TKTD模型在校准和前预测步骤中表现相似.
- 模型复杂性在当前的农药ERA程序中没有显著地区分预测准确性.
- 对于ERA的模型选择应考虑易用性和灵活性之间的平衡.
结论:
- 对于ERA而言,复杂和简化的DEB-TKTD模型之间的选择可能取决于实用考虑,如可用性和灵活性,而不是仅仅依赖于预测性能.
- 强调了知情型建模选择的关键作用,包括数据差距归算和生长/繁殖数据的协调.
- 需要进一步的研究来完善TKTD模型选择标准,以进行可靠的生态风险评估.
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