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相关概念视频

Migration00:53

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Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
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Field Collection and Laboratory Maintenance of Canopy-Forming Giant Kelp to Facilitate Restoration
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未来海岸线变化下的沿海适应和迁移动态.

Lars Tierolf1, Toon Haer1, Panagiotis Athanasiou2

  • 1Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

The Science of the total environment
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概括

海平面上升 (SLR) 可能会迫使大量的沿海人口迁移. 实施防洪和海养生等适应策略可以将这种SLR诱导的迁移减少30%以上.

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基于代理人的建模.气候迁移的气候迁移沿海地区的适应.沿海侵蚀造成的海岸侵蚀.洪水风险 洪水风险 洪水风险海平面上升的海平面上升.

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科学领域:

  • 环境科学 环境科学
  • 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
  • 沿海的动力学

背景情况:

  • 海平面上升 (SLR) 对全球沿海社区构成越来越大的风险.
  • 了解和量化气候变化对沿海人口的影响对于有效的适应规划至关重要.
  • 现有的模型往往缺乏对家庭和政府适应行为的详细表现.

研究的目的:

  • 在SLR下,开发和介绍一种新的模型框架,用于风格化的沿海适应和迁移动态.
  • 模拟家庭和政府机构对海岸线变化和洪水风险的适应.
  • 量化不同适应策略对SLR引发的迁移的影响.

主要方法:

  • 开发基于代理的模型与基于重力的迁移模型相结合.
  • 从人口普查数据中整合家庭特征,从调查数据中做出适应决策.
  • 将SLR预测 (RCP) 和社会经济发展场景 (SSP) 纳入2015年至2080年的模拟.

主要成果:

  • 如果没有适应,SLR可能会导致13100至21700名沿海居民到2080年累计迁移.
  • 由SLR引起的迁移对家庭和政府采用的适应策略非常敏感.
  • 家庭防洪和政府海营养的结合减少了预计SLR诱导的迁移31%-36%.

结论:

  • 适应策略显著影响SLR诱导的沿海迁移的规模.
  • 开发的建模框架允许在各种适应情景下对气候变化影响进行比较分析.
  • 有效的沿海适应规划需要将家庭行为与政府保护措施相结合.