评估基于咖啡的农林系统中气候风险的规模依赖性
Vivekananda M Byrareddy1,2, Jarrod Kath1,3, Louis Kouadio4
1Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, 4350, Australia.
Scientific reports
|April 5, 2024
概括
农林业有助于农业适应气候变化. 这项研究表明,气候风险对罗布斯塔咖啡产量的影响因空间规模而异,区域变暖可能会显著降低产量.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 农林系统对于可持续农业的气候变化适应和减缓至关重要.
- 评估气候风险对于成功实施农林业至关重要,但空间规模的影响往往被忽视.
- 了解这些依赖规模的影响对于开发弹性农业战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候风险对印度各地基于咖啡的农林系统中的罗布斯塔咖啡生产的影响.
- 分析这些影响在不同空间尺度 (地区与区域) 上是如何变化的.
- 为了预测未来气候对咖啡产量的影响,在2°C的全球变暖情景下.
主要方法:
- 收集了来自卡纳塔卡和喀拉拉州314家罗布斯塔咖啡农场的数据 (2015-2018).
- 使用农场级数据量化影响咖啡产量的关键气候驱动因素.
- 利用基线 (1985-2015年) 的预测气候数据和2°C升温情景来建模产量变化.
主要成果:
- 雨量变化是区级咖啡生产率的主要限制.
- 最大温度成为影响区域规模产量的最重要因素.
- 预计2°C的变暖显示出规模依赖的效应:地区规模的产量增加适度 (高达5%),但在区域规模显著减少 (10-20%).
结论:
- 气候风险对咖啡产量的影响取决于规模,需要量身定制的农林战略.
- 区域规模的气候模型表明,在未来的变暖情景下,潜在的产量损失.
- 制定适应性农林战略,考虑各种空间尺度,对于确保咖啡生产的弹性至关重要.
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