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基于多因素驱动的可解释和可解释的混合模型,用于基于多因素驱动的每日流量预测
Wuyi Wan1, Yu Zhou2, Yaojie Chen1
1College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
概括
本研究介绍了一个可解释的TCN-LSTM-多头注意力模型,用于增强流量预测. 混合模型显著提高了准确性,并揭示了流动动态的关键驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源水文与水资源
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
- 环境数据科学环境数据科学
背景情况:
- 流量预测受到非线性和非静止数据的挑战.
- 现有的机器学习模型往往缺乏可解释性,阻碍了可靠性.
- 准确的流量预测对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种可解释的混合机器学习模型,用于流量预测.
- 为了提高预测准确度,使用流动因果驱动预测样本 (RCDP).
- 调查影响流动动态的物理因果模式.
主要方法:
- 混合TCN-LSTM-多头注意力架构用于流量预测.
- 用流动因果驱动预测样本 (RCDP) 进行培训和验证.
- 采用沙普利值和部分依赖性分析,用于本地和全球的解释性.
- 使用 find_peaks 方法识别了峰值流动事件.
主要成果:
- TCN-LSTM-多头注意力模型显著优于LSTM模型,增加R2高达52.9%.
- 与自动回归样本 (RAP和MCSAP) 相比,RCDP样本提高了预测准确度.
- 历史流量 (3天延迟),流量量 (Q),降水量 (P) 和表面土壤湿度 (SSM) 被确定为关键预测因素.
- 模型揭示了在低,正常和洪水流量期间不同的影响因素.
结论:
- 拟议的混合模型为流量预测提供了卓越的准确性和可解释性.
- 该模型有效量化了水力动力学影响,增强了对流动行为的理解.
- 模型的可解释性有助于识别非线性关系和值响应,提高可靠性.
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