不同类型的风险承受能力,内部群体和流行病浪潮.
Chénangnon Frédéric Tovissodé1, Bert Baumgaertner2
1Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States.
概括
了解疾病动态需要模拟健康信仰. 这项研究模拟了风险感知和群体压力,发现行为反应会影响流行病的严重程度,高保护水平可能会导致多个波.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 行为科学 行为科学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 越来越多的人对与健康信仰共同建模疾病动态感兴趣.
- 疾病传播和公众看法之间的合机制仍然不太清楚.
- 需要采用包含风险信息解释和社会影响的模型.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的疾病动态模型,将风险信息和社会影响纳入其中.
- 研究对风险信息的行为反应对流行病严重性的影响.
- 探索人口行为反应的异质性如何影响流行病结果.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个具有延迟风险信息 (历史和预测) 的模型.
- 包括一个由集团内部压力影响的解释领域.
- 模拟的流行病严重程度 (峰值大小,波浪,最终大小) 基于行为反应强度.
- 在人口响应概况中的模拟异质性.
主要成果:
- 在50%以上的保护下,行为反应是无效的;在75%以上的保护下,出现多个波.
- 流行病的结果可以与行为反应的强度非单调.
- 响应资料中的人口异质性可以减少流行病的峰值大小.
结论:
- 行为反应和社会动态显著影响流行病轨迹.
- 预防行为的有效性高度依赖于所提供的保护水平.
- 人口反应的异质性可能为减轻流行病严重性的途径提供了途径.
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