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极端降水变量的增加对未来创纪录事件的概率起着关键作用.
Iris de Vries1, Sebastian Sippel2, Joel Zeder1
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
概括
气候变化加剧的创纪录的降雨事件带来了重大风险. 这项研究量化了它们的增加概率,特别是在高排放期货中,突出了气候变化的作用.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
- 统计气候学 统计气候学
背景情况:
- 创纪录的气候事件对全球社会和生态系统构成严重威胁.
- 量化极端事件的概率是具有挑战性的,因为自然的变化和数据的限制.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计极端降水事件的概率,超过历史记录至少一个工业化前标准偏差.
- 分析气候变化对这些创纪录的事件频率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用大型集体气候模拟和极端价值理论.
- 确定了创纪录的降雨事件的经验和分析概率.
- 开发了一个框架来量化变化平均值和变化对极端降水的影响.
主要成果:
- 气候模型预测,在高排放场景下,到本世纪末全球降水量创纪录的可能性要高得多.
- 预计热带地区将经历极端降水事件的最大增加.
- 气候变化的增加是近期降水概率创纪录的关键驱动因素.
结论:
- 创纪录的降雨概率估计对于为气候变化风险评估和适应战略提供信息至关重要.
- 该研究为了解气候平均值和变异性变化如何影响极端降水提供了一个框架.
- 需要采取紧急政策行动,以减轻与越来越频繁的极端天气事件相关的风险.
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