一个急性肺栓塞的预后预测模型
1Department of Intensive Care Unit, The Affiliated Taizhou People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Taizhou City, Jiangsu Province, China.
概括
这项研究确定了急性肺栓塞 (APE) 的关键预后因素,包括年龄,右心室功能障碍,白细胞计数,白蛋白/纤维素素比率,预后营养指数和全身炎症反应指数. 使用这些因素的预测模型显示30天死亡风险的准确性很好.
科学领域:
- 肺部病理学 肺部病理学
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 医学预测 医学预测
背景情况:
- 急性肺栓塞 (APE) 是一种具有高死亡率的危急医疗紧急情况.
- 确定预后因素对于在重症监护室管理APE患者至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 探索APE的独立预后因素.
- 开发和验证APE患者30天死亡率的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对252名APE患者的回顾性分析.
- 考克斯多变量回归用于风险因素识别.
- 使用R软件构建和评估Nomogram模型.
主要成果:
- 30天的死亡率为16.6%.
- 确定了独立的危险因素:年龄≥62.5岁,右心室功能障碍 (RVD),白细胞计数 (WBC) ≥13.1岁,白蛋白/纤维素素比率 (AFR) <9.15岁,预后营养指数 (PNI) <50.3岁,全身炎症反应指数 (SIRI) ≥1.05岁.
- 诺莫格拉姆模型实现了0.908的AUC,用于预测30天死亡率.
结论:
- 年龄,RVD,WBC,AFR,PNI和SIRI是APE死亡率的重要独立风险因素.
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型为预测APE患者的预后提供了有价值的工具.
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