基于复杂系统理论的汽车制造商复杂动态行为的研究
Jinhuan Tang1, Xinying Si1, Qiong Wu1
1School of Economics and Management, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang, China.
PloS one
|December 6, 2024
概括
新能源汽车和汽油汽车制造商在双重信贷政策下面面临市场中断的风险. 延迟生产决策可以稳定汽车工业,并支持向新能源汽车的过渡.
科学领域:
- 汽车工程 汽车工程
- 复杂系统理论 复杂系统理论
- 环境政策 环境政策
背景情况:
- 汽车行业在现有的汽油汽车 (GV) 生产中面临着向新能源汽车 (NEV) 过渡的挑战.
- 双重信用 (DC) 政策旨在激励新能源汽车的采用和减排.
- 根据政策,了解制造商的长期战略对于市场稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个非线性动态系统模型来分析在DC政策下NEV和GV的生产策略.
- 调查生产延迟对汽车市场稳定性和动态的影响.
- 确定市场稳定和支持行业转型的条件.
主要方法:
- 利用复杂系统理论和非线性动态系统分析.
- 模拟了NEV和GV制造商之间的长期游戏过程.
- 分析了系统行为,包括稳定的区域,分叉,混乱的吸引子,以及最大的利亚普诺夫指数 (LLE),包括生产延迟.
主要成果:
- 增加生产和碳排放调整参数可能导致系统混乱和市场混乱.
- 在稳定的地区,GV排放调整不会影响NEV或GV生产;NEV显示出更大的生产灵活性.
- 延迟生产决策可能会对市场稳定产生积极影响.
结论:
- 该研究提供了对DC政策下的汽车生产动态的理论见解.
- 推推迟生产决策,以在新能源汽车过渡期间稳定市场.
- 调查结果支持决策者和制造商在向可持续汽车工业转变方面进行导航.
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