短期风速的概率预测间隔使用选择的特征和时间转移依赖机器学习模型.
Rami Al-Hajj1, Gholamreza Oskrochi1, Mohamad M Fouad2
1College of Engineering and Technology, American University of the Middle East, Kuwait.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|February 14, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了预测风速的新框架,通过分离白天和夜间预测来提高准确性. 这种方法通过更好地模拟风速的不确定性,提高了风能行业的可靠性.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 气象预报 气象预报
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 风速预测对风能行业至关重要,但由于高度的变化和不可预测性,它面临着挑战.
- 传统的确定性方法无法捕捉风速的不确定性,影响风能预测的可靠性.
- 现有的预测间隔模型不考虑日间变化,可能会影响概率预测性能.
研究的目的:
- 为确定性和概率的短期风速预测开发一个新的框架.
- 通过整合白天和夜间特定模型来提高风速预测的准确性和可靠性.
- 有效地建模和传达与风速预测相关的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 应用特征选择,以确定不同昼夜数据集的相关参数.
- 使用支持向量回归器 (SVR) 进行10分钟前风速点预测.
- 采用核心密度估计 (KDE) 合成预测错误和估计预测间隔 (PI) 在各种置信级别.
主要成果:
- 拟议的框架在所有评估标准中产生令人满意的预测间隔方面表现出有效性.
- 模拟结果验证了该框架能够提供可靠的确定性和概率风速预测的能力.
- 为了提高预测准确度,分离白天和夜间数据集的假设得到了证实.
结论:
- 开发的框架为风能部门的短期风速预测提供了显著的进步.
- 基于白天和夜间班次的分离数据可以提高机器学习模型的风速预测性能.
- 该方法提供了一种可行和有效的方法来估计预测间隔,这对于管理风能不确定性至关重要.
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