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在一个不确定的世界里,低估未来的回报.

G W Story1,2, Z Kurth-Nelson2,3, M Moutoussis2,4

  • 1Division of Psychiatry, University College London.

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概括

不耐烦,或延迟折扣,部分是由奖励大小的不确定性驱动的,称为波动性. 这项研究表明,较高的奖励波动增加了折扣,这表明个人决策差异的关键因素.

关键词:
折扣是指使用折扣的方式.冲动性是一种冲动性.危险的风险 危险的风险不确定性是一种不确定性.波动性 波动性的波动性

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科学领域:

  • 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
  • 神经经济学 神经经济学
  • 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学

背景情况:

  • 人们往往低估了延迟的奖励与即时的奖励相比.
  • 现有的理论将折扣与奖励非物质化的风险联系起来.
  • 不确定性在延迟折扣的奖励 * 幅度 * 中的作用较少被探索.

研究的目的:

  • 调查延迟奖励 (波动性) 大小的不确定性如何影响延迟折扣.
  • 提出并测试一个折扣与奖励波动率成比例的模型.
  • 探索波动性折扣的基础的神经机制.

主要方法:

  • 与158名参与者进行的三项实验涉及时间间选择任务.
  • 参与者了解了产品价格动态,并选择了销售时间.
  • 功能磁共振成像 (fMRI) 用于评估大脑活动和连接性.

主要成果:

  • 延迟折扣随着实验中价格波动的增加而增加.
  • 这种效应在自然主义的延迟下持续了长达4个月的时间.
  • fMRI显示,海马 - 前额合的减少与波动性相关.

结论:

  • 延迟折扣受到奖励大小 (波动性) 时间依赖的不确定性的影响.
  • 一个新的模型捕捉了折扣如何适应波动,解释了个人不耐烦的差异.
  • 神经发现表明,不确定性会损害对未来结果的预期模拟.