在一般化的非线性q-选民模型中,对二元决策中的建模偏见
Maciej Doniec1, Pratik Mullick2, Parongama Sen3
1Department of Science, Technology and Society Studies, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wrocław, Poland.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|April 15, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一个通用的q-选民模型来解释集体决策,结合个人偏见和外部影响. 它揭示了更大的群体可以导致共存的意见,挑战简单多数通过.
科学领域:
- 社会动态和集体行为建模.
- 社会现象的统计物理.
- 基于代理人的意见形成建模.
背景情况:
- 集体决策对于社会动态至关重要,通常是使用二进制动态建模的.
- 一个受欢迎的框架,q-voter模型,假设由一致的同行压力驱动的意见变化.
- 现实世界的决策受到个人历史和外部偏见的影响,而不是标准模型所捕捉到的.
研究的目的:
- 提出和分析一个包含个人偏见和外部影响的通用化q选民模型.
- 通过允许不对称的意见变化概率来扩展现有模型.
- 调查小组规模和初始意见分布对集体结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个通用的q-选民模型,以国家依赖的意见变化概率.
- 分析方法应用于一个完整的图表.
- 蒙特卡洛模拟用于验证分析结果并探索系统动态.
主要成果:
- 对于更大的影响力群体 (q>3),出现了一个新的阶段,即完全采用和部分采用的国家共存.
- 在小型系统中,最初的多数支持并不保证广泛采用,由独特的退出概率曲线表明.
- 该模型恢复了已建立的q选民模型和最近的变化作为限制情况.
结论:
- 概括的q-选民模型为理解不同影响下的集体决策提供了更现实的框架.
- 集团规模显著影响集体行动,可能导致复杂的意见状态和非直观的采用动态.
- 研究结果强调了在社会科学模型中考虑个人偏见和外部因素的重要性.
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