确定尸贷款的真正影响
Fabiano Schivardi1, Enrico Sette2, Guido Tabellini3
1Luiss University, EIEF, and CEPR.
概括
对COVID-19的政策反应可能会产生尸贷款,损害健康的公司. 然而,这项研究揭示了一个统计问题:坚定的表现经常被用来定义尸,创造了一个没有因果关系的误导性相关性.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 金融 金融 金融 金融 金融
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 针对COVID-19的政策应对措施包括为企业提供信贷担保.
- 现有文献表明,尸公司的增加会对健康的公司业绩产生负面影响.
- 这种负相关性经常被引用作为尸公司挤出健康公司的证据.
研究的目的:
- 调查文献中的识别问题,将尸公司与健康的公司业绩联系起来.
- 要确定观察到的负相关性是因果关系还是统计学伪造的.
主要方法:
- 该研究分析了健康公司业绩和尸公司的比例之间的关系.
- 它采用计量经济学方法来解决潜在的内源性和识别问题.
- 该分析考虑了公司业绩分配的一般条件.
主要成果:
- 存在一个重要的识别问题,因为公司的业绩经常被用来定义尸公司.
- 在一般情况下,健康公司业绩和尸公司之间的相关性是增加尸公司比例的机械结果.
- 这种相关性缺乏因果解释.
结论:
- 正如通常报道的那样,健康的公司业绩和尸公司之间的负面关系可能不是因果驱动的.
- 调查结果表明,政策干预应该谨慎地解释尸公司的背景下公司绩效指标.
- 需要进一步的研究来解开尸公司文献中的统计文物中的因果关系.
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