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Updated: Sep 18, 2025

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对未来极端降水变化的联合出现的约束
Hideo Shiogama1, Michiya Hayashi2, Nagio Hirota2
1Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan. shiogama.hideo@nies.go.jp.
Nature communications
|June 19, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一种新方法,以减少气候变化预测中的不确定性. 通过将全球变暖趋势与历史降水偏差相结合,它显著改善了极端降雨事件的预测.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖趋势对未来的温度上升 (ΔTgm) 和相关的气候变量有限制.
- 与 ΔTgm 相关的现有新兴约束 (EC) 不能解决与全球平均温度独立的不确定性.
- 预计每日最大年降水量变化的不确定性仍然是一个重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的EC方法,以减少未来降水变化的不确定性.
- 通过解决与ΔTgm无关的不确定性,改进每年最大每日降水量的预测.
- 提高极端降水事件气候模型预测的可靠性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种结合EC方法,将降水灵敏度与受约束的ΔTgm整合在一起.
- 利用历史极端降水偏差来告知EC降水灵敏度.
- 应用了结合EC来评估每日最大降水量的未来变化.
主要成果:
- 综合EC降低了全球平均降水率的变量42%,比仅温度EC大大改善 (26%的降低).
- 全球24%的区域降水变量减少了≥30%,而与温度相关的EC相比,只有2%.
- 新方法有效地减少了预测极端降水的不确定性,特别是在区域范围内.
结论:
- 开发的EC联合方法在减少气候变化对降水影响的不确定性方面取得了重大进展.
- 这种方法提高了气候模型对极端天气事件的预测能力.
- 解决与 ΔTgm 相关的和独立的不确定性对于准确的气候预测至关重要.
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