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适应气候变化的铁路网络:一个资源意识的框架
Anibal Tafur1, Sotirios A Argyroudis2,3, Stergios A Mitoulis3,4
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University, Houston TX, USA.
Communications engineering
|August 21, 2025
概括
沿海风险和气候变化严重影响了铁路系统的弹性. 海平面上升和风可以使抵御能力降低80%,这凸显了在规划中更好地分配资源的需要.
科学领域:
- 土木工程
- 气候科学
- 运输系统
背景情况:
- 沿海风险和气候变化对铁路系统的弹性构成重大威胁.
- 资源的可用性和分配是影响系统停机时间和经济损失的关键因素.
- 现有的弹性模型往往没有全面整合结构损坏和修复动态.
研究的目的:
- 开发和提出一个概率框架来量化铁路系统的弹性.
- 在基础设施组合中系统地整合结构损坏和修复模型.
- 根据不同的资源分配策略对网络功能进行比较评估.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个概率框架,整合了量身定制的结构损坏和修复模型.
- 将框架应用于阿拉巴马州的摩拜尔和德温县的铁路网络.
- 模拟网络功能下降和恢复,估计损坏状态,恢复成本和时间.
主要成果:
- 海平面上升与风相结合,
- 不同的资源分配策略导致弹性估计差异高达75%.
- 该框架有效估计了损坏,恢复需求和网络功能变化.
结论:
- 海平面上升和资源限制是有效的铁路弹性规划的关键因素.
- 开发的框架提供了细微的量化数据,以支持缓解和应对的决策.
- 这些发现有利于政策制定者,基础设施管理者,保险公司和参与沿海基础设施弹性工作的机构.


