推动和拉动:政治不信任对代表民主及其对手的支持的静态和动态影响
Tom W G van der Meer1, Lisa A Janssen2
1Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
概括
让公民远离代表性民主. 支持直接民主等替代方案取决于个人的政治观点,
科学领域:
- 政治科学
- 比较政治
- 公众的意见
背景情况:
- 政治不信任往往与要求制度变革有关.
- 关于不信任是否会推动公民走向特定的替代治理模式 (直接民主,技术统治,专制主义) 的学术共识尚不存在.
研究的目的:
- 研究政治不信任与支持代表性民主与其他决策模式之间的微观关系.
- 确定替代模式的吸引力是否取决于公民的政治效力和民粹主义倾向.
- 要区分持续低信任与信任下降的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析来自四个欧洲国家的三波面板调查数据 (英国,荷兰,瑞典,葡萄牙).
- 估计随机效应 (REWB) 模型以分离不同的信任动态.
- 测试政治效力和民粹主义态度对支持变革的条件影响.
主要成果:
- 政治不信任无条件地减少了对现状 (代表性民主) 的支持.
- 不信任并不能统一地增加对任何单一替代模式的支持.
- 政治不信任最强烈地促进了对直接民主的支持,特别是在具有高政治效率和民粹主义倾向的公民中.
结论:
- 不信任是代表性民主的推动因素,而不是对替代方案的普遍吸引力.
- 替代治理模式的吸引力取决于个人的政治意愿.
- 调查结果支持"不满的民主主义者"理论,不信任激发了对更大的直接政治影响的渴望.
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