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相关概念视频

Hindsight Biases01:12

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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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Fundamental Attribution Error01:14

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According to some social psychologists, people tend to overemphasize internal factors as explanations—or attributions—for the behavior of other people. They tend to assume that the behavior of another person is a trait of that person, and to underestimate the power of the situation on the behavior of others. They tend to fail to recognize when the behavior of another is due to situational variables, and thus to the person’s state. This erroneous assumption is...
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The Availability Heuristic01:08

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A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
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Theory of Attribution II: Kelley's Covariation Theory01:29

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Attribution theory plays a crucial role in social psychology, helping to explain how individuals interpret the causes of behavior. One prominent model within this field is Harold Kelley's covariation theory, which provides a systematic approach to determining whether internal traits or external circumstances drive a person's actions. The model posits that individuals rely on three key types of information—consensus, consistency, and distinctiveness—to make these judgments.Consensus:...
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In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the...
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In operant conditioning, the timing of reinforcement is crucial. For animals like rats and cats, immediate reinforcement (within a few seconds) is much more effective than delayed reinforcement. For example, a food reward for a rat needs to follow within 30 seconds of pressing a bar to be effective. 
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Updated: Jan 11, 2026

The Joint Effect of Social Comparison and Social Distance on Evaluation of Intertemporal Choice Outcomes in Event-related Potential Studies
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在绩效判断中忽视了偶然的机会.

Ze Hong1, Joseph Henrich2

  • 1Department of Sociology, University of Macau, Taipa, Macau SAR, China.

Cognition
|November 18, 2025
PubMed
概括
此摘要是机器生成的。

人们在评估性能时经常忽视偶然的信息,导致对技术有效性的错误判断. 在中国和美国观察到的这种"机会忽视"偏见,可以使无效技术的使用永久化.

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科学领域:

  • 认知心理学 认知心理学
  • 决策科学科学 决策科学
  • 技术社会学技术的社会学.

背景情况:

  • 人类在评估绩效时经常误解或忽视机会信息.
  • 这种认知偏见会影响各种实践,特别是技术实践的有效性.

研究的目的:

  • 调查在绩效评估中对偶然信息的系统误解或忽视.
  • 检查个人如何使用或未能使用机会级成功率作为判断技术有效性的基准.

主要方法:

  • 在中国和美国 (N=1387) 进行了对不同样本的研究.
  • 使用了具有客观已知的机会绩效率的场景 (例如,预测胎儿性别的~50%).
  • 分析的参与者低估了随机猜测的成功和未能使用机会作为基线.

主要成果:

  • 许多参与者低估了随机猜测的成功率.
  • 即使意识到机会水平,参与者也往往未能将这些信息作为评估专家预测的基准.
  • 偶然的疏忽在与业绩相关的判断中更为明显.

结论:

  • 一个重要的认知偏见,称为"偶然忽视",系统地影响绩效评估.
  • 这种偏见有助于低估随机表现和高估特定实践.
  • 偶然的忽视可能解释了不同社会中不有效的技术的持续存在.