在概率推理框架内建模信息需求
Matthew W Jiwa1,2, Jacqueline Gottlieb3,4,5
1Mortimer B. Zuckerman Mind Brain Behavior Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. matt.jiwa@unimelb.edu.au.
Communications psychology
|January 17, 2026
概括
人类对信息的需求是由我们如何感知获利和损失的概率驱动的,而不仅仅是线性动机. 这一发现影响了在风险和不确定性下理解决策.
科学领域:
- 认知科学是一种认知科学.
- 决策科学科学 决策科学
- 神经经济学 神经经济学
背景情况:
- 有效的决策依赖于战略信息采样.
- 信息需求背后的认知机制仍然不完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 调查主观概率感知在信息需求中的作用.
- 为了比较信息寻找行为的非线性和线性模型.
主要方法:
- 在三个独立的参与者样本 (N=50,50,150) 中进行行为测试.
- 量化模型比较以评估预测准确性.
- 与人格特征和风险偏好的相关性分析.
主要成果:
- 结合非线性概率和价值感知的模型显著优于线性模型.
- 信息需求的个体非线性与人格和寻求风险/厌恶相关.
- 对概率结果的主观感知是信息需求的关键.
结论:
- 基于主观概率感知的计算框架增强了对信息需求的理解.
- 这个框架将寻求信息与在风险和不确定性下的决策联系在一起.
- 对概率的非线性感知是寻求信息行为的关键因素.
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