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Related Experiment Videos

Strategy under uncertainty.

H Courtney1, J Kirkland, P Viguerie

  • 1McKinsey and Company, Washington, DC, USA.

Harvard Business Review
|October 4, 1997
PubMed
Summary
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Traditional strategy fails in uncertain business environments. A new approach distinguishes four uncertainty levels and applies adaptive strategies like market shaping or reserving the right to play, using big bets, options, or no-regrets moves.

Area of Science:

  • Business Strategy
  • Organizational Behavior
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Traditional strategic planning relies on accurate future prediction through analytic tools.
  • High environmental uncertainty challenges conventional forecasting and decision-making processes.
  • Executives often adopt a binary approach: underestimating or overestimating uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a new strategic framework for navigating highly uncertain business environments.
  • To differentiate between discrete levels of uncertainty and their strategic implications.
  • To guide executives in selecting appropriate strategies and actions under conditions of unpredictability.

Main Methods:

  • Categorizing business environments into four distinct levels of uncertainty.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Identifying generic strategic approaches: shaping, adapting, or reserving the right to play.
  • Defining implementation tactics: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves.

    • Main Results:

    • A framework is presented to systematically analyze uncertainty and its impact on strategy.
    • The approach helps determine the applicability of various analytical tools in uncertain contexts.
    • Managers can better align strategic actions with specific levels of environmental uncertainty.

    Conclusions:

    • Uncertainty necessitates a departure from traditional predictive strategy models.
    • The proposed framework offers a disciplined method for rigorous strategic thinking under uncertainty.
    • Effective strategy in uncertain times involves a nuanced understanding of risk and adaptive action.