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Related Experiment Videos

Even swaps: a rational method for making trade-offs.

J S Hammond1, R L Keeney, H Raiffa

  • 1Center for Telecommunications Management, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA.

Harvard Business Review
|February 6, 1998
PubMed
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Making difficult decisions with multiple objectives is challenging due to disparate comparison metrics. The even-swaps method offers a practical framework for rational trade-offs, simplifying complex choices.

Area of Science:

  • Decision Science
  • Operations Research
  • Cognitive Psychology

Background:

  • Decision-making often involves complex trade-offs between multiple objectives.
  • Comparing disparate objectives (e.g., numerical, relational, descriptive) poses a significant challenge.
  • Existing methods rely on intuition, lacking a structured approach to trade-off analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce a practical methodology for making trade-offs among diverse objectives and alternatives.
  • To provide a rational and easy-to-use system for complex decision-making.
  • To simplify the mechanical aspects of trade-offs, allowing focus on value assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Development of the 'even swaps' method for trade-off analysis.
  • Codification of the mechanical elements involved in making trade-offs.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Application of the method to a range of objectives and alternatives.

    • Main Results:

    • The even-swaps method provides a reliable mechanism for making trade-offs.
    • It offers a coherent framework for decision-making processes.
    • Simplifies the comparison of widely disparate attributes.

    Conclusions:

    • The even-swaps method enhances rational decision-making by structuring trade-offs.
    • It does not eliminate difficult choices but provides a robust framework for them.
    • Enables decision-makers to concentrate on the core task of assigning value to different actions.