Projecting shortages and surpluses of dentists from available data

Area of Science:

• Health Workforce Planning
• Dental Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Effective healthcare workforce planning is crucial for meeting population needs.
• Accurate manpower projections are essential for dental education and policy.
• Previous projections may not have utilized all available data or considered key demographic factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review the utility and methodologies of manpower projection.
• To estimate current (1975) and future (1990) dentist supply and demand in Illinois.
• To present a flexible model for dental manpower forecasting.

Main Methods:

• Utilized generally available data for Illinois.
• Incorporated dentist mortality rates, new dentist production and retention, age-specific productivity, and immigration.
• Assumed future dentist distribution mirrors current patterns.
• Allowed for variation in demand variables like productivity and patient visits.

Main Results:

• Presented estimates of dentist surpluses and deficits for Illinois in 1975.
• Projected potential dentist surpluses and deficits for Illinois in 1990.
• Demonstrated a model using accessible data for manpower analysis.

Conclusions:

• The developed model provides a framework for understanding Illinois's dental workforce dynamics.
• Manpower projections are valuable tools for strategic planning in the dental sector.
• The model's flexibility allows for adaptation to changing assumptions about demand and supply.