Competition among causes but not effects in predictive and diagnostic learning

Causal asymmetry is one of the most fundamental features of the physical world: Causes produce effects, but not vice versa. This article is part of a debate between the view that, in principle, people are sensitive to causal directionality during learning (causal-model theory) and the view that learning primarily involves acquiring associations between cues and outcomes irrespective of their causal role (associative theories). Four experiments are presented that use asymmetries of cue competition to discriminate between these views. These experiments show that, contrary to associative accounts, cue competition interacts with causal status and that people are capable of differentiating between predictive and diagnostic inferences. Additional implications of causal-model theory are elaborated and empirically tested against alternative accounts. The results uniformly favor causal-model theory.