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Implications of an aging registered nurse workforce.
P I Buerhaus1, D O Staiger, D I Auerbach
1Vanderbilt University School of Nursing, Godchaux Hall, Room 512, Twenty First Ave S, Nashville, TN 37240-0008, USA. peter.buerhaus@mcmail.vanderbilt.edu
JAMA
|June 24, 2000
Summary
The registered nurse (RN) workforce is aging due to fewer young women entering the profession. This trend will lead to a shrinking RN supply, potentially failing to meet future healthcare demands.
Area of Science:
- Healthcare Workforce Analysis
- Nursing Demographics
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- The average age of registered nurses (RNs) in the US significantly increased between 1983 and 1998.
- Empirical analysis of the causes and implications of the aging RN workforce was lacking.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and assess factors influencing the age distribution and supply of RNs.
- To project the future RN workforce's age distribution and total numbers through 2020.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort analysis of RN employment trends from 1973 to 1998 using US Census Bureau data.
- Forecasting long-term RN age and employment based on recent workforce trends.
- Analysis included 60,386 employed RNs aged 23-64.
Main Results:
- RN average age rose by 4.5 years (1983-1998).
- Recent RN cohorts show ~35% lower full-time equivalent numbers than earlier cohorts at similar ages.
- By 2020, the RN workforce may be static in size but nearly 20% below projected needs, with over 40% older than 50.
Conclusions:
- A decline in younger women entering nursing is the primary driver of the aging RN workforce.
- Without intervention, the RN workforce will continue to age and shrink.
- The projected RN shortage may not meet future healthcare demands.
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