Clinical and sign prediction: the draw-a-person and female homosexuality

The validity of predicting female homosexuality from empirical signs from the Draw-A-Person (DAP) was compared to the validity of psychologists' "blind" predictions from the same DAP protocols. Four specific DAP signs significantly predicted homosexual drawings from those of heterosexual controls; patterns derived from these signs were even better predictors. Two of four clinicians predicted sexual orientation greater than chance; one predicted as well as the optimal sign pattern. In view of the expected shrinkage involved in cross-validating the empirical signs and patterns, clinical prediction probably would equal or surpass the accuracy of statistical prediction. Individual differences in clinical prediction and the process of clinical prediction were discussed.