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Hypothetical fears and quantitative risk analysis.

C Starr1

  • 1Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA 94304, USA. cstarr@epri.com

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|January 19, 2002
PubMed
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Hypothetical fears, unlike measurable risks, are difficult to quantify in national decision-making. This study proposes using the social cost of reducing fear as a new input for quantitative risk analysis (QRA).

Area of Science:

  • Decision Science
  • Risk Analysis
  • Social Psychology

Background:

  • Hypothetical fears are conceptual and cannot be easily measured using traditional quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods.
  • This lack of measurement leads to unquantified influences in national decision-making processes.
  • Current decision-making involves an Analytic Stage (QRA-based) and a Priority Stage (resource allocation).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To address the challenge of incorporating conceptual fears into national decision-making.
  • To propose a novel input for the Priority Stage of decision-making.
  • To suggest a method for quantifying the impact of hypothetical fears.

Main Methods:

  • The study critiques the limitations of conventional benefit/cost/risk analyses for conceptual fears.

Related Experiment Videos

  • It proposes using a quantitative estimate of the social cost of fear reduction.
  • This estimate would serve as a surrogate input for QRA in the Priority Stage.

    • Main Results:

    • Conventional QRA is impractical for conceptual fears due to their non-quantitative nature.
    • Hypothetical fears currently act as an unmeasured influence in national decisions.
    • A quantitative social cost of fear reduction can provide a measurable input.

    Conclusions:

    • A quantitative estimate of the social cost of fear reduction is a viable surrogate QRA input.
    • This approach can improve the measurability and rationality of resource allocation in the Priority Stage.
    • Integrating this metric can lead to more informed national decision-making regarding hypothetical risks.