Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 28, 2026
07:37
Assessment and Communication for People with Disorders of Consciousness
Published on: August 1, 2017
Probability misjudgment, cognitive ability, and belief in the paranormal
Jochen Musch1, Katja Ehrenberg
1University of Bonn, Germany. jochen.musch@uni-bonn.de
Summary
Paranormal belief is linked to errors in probability, but this connection vanishes when general cognitive ability is considered. Lower cognitive ability, not poor probabilistic reasoning, appears to underlie paranormal beliefs.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Psychology of Belief
Background:
- The probability misjudgment account suggests paranormal belief stems from misattributing coincidences to supernatural causes.
- Previous research links paranormal belief to higher error rates in probabilistic reasoning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether general cognitive ability, rather than specific probabilistic reasoning skills, underlies the link between paranormal belief and probabilistic errors.
- To test an alternative explanation for the observed correlation.
Main Methods:
- Administered a belief in the paranormal scale (BPS) and probabilistic reasoning tasks to 123 university students.
- Controlled for general cognitive ability using final examination grades.
Main Results:
- A significant correlation was found between BPS scores and probabilistic reasoning errors, confirming prior studies.
- This correlation disappeared when cognitive ability was statistically controlled.
- Lower general cognitive ability was substantially correlated with higher belief in the paranormal.
Conclusions:
- The findings suggest that differences in general cognitive performance, not specific deficits in probabilistic reasoning, form the basis for paranormal beliefs.
- This challenges the direct causal role of probabilistic misjudgment in the formation of paranormal beliefs.
Related Concept Videos
01:23Extrasensory Perception
Extrasensory perception, or ESP, suggests the ability to perceive events beyond the conventional senses of sight, hearing, and touch. Parapsychologists, who research ESP and related psychic phenomena, categorize ESP into three main types: precognition, telepathy, and clairvoyance.
Precognition involves foreseeing future events, such as predicting an accident before it happens. An example of precognition could be someone dreaming about a specific event, like a car crash, which then occurs...
Precognition involves foreseeing future events, such as predicting an accident before it happens. An example of precognition could be someone dreaming about a specific event, like a car crash, which then occurs...
01:18False Memories
False memories represent a cognitive distortion in which individuals recall events that did not happen, or remember them in an altered form. This phenomenon highlights the brain's constructive nature in processing and recalling memories, emphasizing that memory is not a perfect representation of past events but rather a dynamic reconstruction influenced by various factors.
One primary source of false memories is misattribution, where individuals incorrectly associate external information with...
One primary source of false memories is misattribution, where individuals incorrectly associate external information with...
01:30Unrealistic Optimism Bias
Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
01:29Magical Thinking
Magical thinking encompasses the belief in assumptions that defy logical reasoning yet appear intuitively convincing. It is a common psychological phenomenon that persists across various cultural and individual contexts. While these assumptions contradict empirical evidence and scientific laws, they often serve meaningful psychological roles in promoting emotional resilience and a sense of control, especially under stress or uncertainty.Thought-Action Fusion and the Law of SimilarityA key...
01:25Motivational Bias
Cognitive bias results from limitations in thinking and information processing, leading to systematic errors in judgment. Conversely, motivational bias stems from personal desires or emotions, causing distortions in perception to align with self-interest. Motivational bias influences how individuals perceive and attribute causes to events, often shaped by personal needs, goals, and self-esteem preservation. This bias can distort judgment, leading to inaccurate assessments of success, failure,...
01:27Halo Effect
The halo effect is a cognitive bias in which an individual's overall impression influences judgments about their specific traits. This psychological phenomenon leads people to associate positive characteristics with those they perceive as generally good and negative characteristics with those they view as bad. This effect is particularly influential in social perception, professional evaluations, and decision-making processes.The Psychological Basis of the Halo EffectThe halo effect is rooted...