Stroke in Lund-Orup, Sweden: improved long-term survival among elderly stroke patients

Several studies report declining early stroke case fatality, but the findings are not consistent across geographic areas. Corresponding changes in long-term survival are less well documented. We recently reported increased stroke incidence among patients aged <75 years and stable incidence among older persons. We now report temporal trends for early and late case fatality among patients with stroke onset during 1983-1985 and 1993- 1995.

Patients living within the Lund-Orup, Sweden, hospital district and fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for first-ever stroke during 1983-1985 (n=998) and 1993-1995 (n=1318) were followed up concerning survival status at 28 days, 1 year, and 3 years. Age and sex adjustments were performed. The possible influence of Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) stroke subtypes on survival was also analyzed.

Overall survival improved between the study periods (Cox proportional hazards regression: hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence limits, 0.75 to 0.94; P=0.0019). The 28-day case fatality was 15% for stroke patients from both study periods. One-year case fatality was 31% for 1983-1985 patients and 27% for 1993-1995 patients. The corresponding figures at 3 years were 44% and 40%, respectively. In the group aged <75 years, there were no significant changes in overall survival, but survival improved significantly among patients aged > or = 75 years beyond 28 days after stroke onset. OCSP stroke subtype was an independent predictor of death (P<0.0001).

The recently observed increase in stroke incidence among patients aged <75 years was not accompanied by changing survival in that age group. However, among patients aged > or =75 years, survival improved beyond 28 days after stroke. The causes of this change in survival are unknown but may be related to improved long-term care of elderly stroke patients.