Developmental trajectories, transitions, and nonlinear dynamical systems: a model of crime deceleration and...

Research on crime-related developmental trajectories is reviewed with outcomes revealing the existence of several trajectories rather than a single general pattern. Each trajectory is marked by transitions that define the pattern's path and direction over time. These anticipated transitions differ from the unanticipated transitions known to precipitate crime deceleration and desistance. Borrowing principles from nonlinear dynamical systems theory--sensitive dependence on initial conditions, chaotic attractors, and self-organization in particular--this article offers a model of crime deceleration and desistance in which belief systems congruent with crime are altered in phases--initiation, transition, maintenance--to create belief systems incongruent with crime. The practical implications of this model are discussed and suggestions for future research are outlined.