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Error models for official mortality forecasts.

J M Alho, B D Spencer

    Journal of the American Statistical Association
    |September 1, 1990
    PubMed
    Summary
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    The U.S. Social Security Administration

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Biostatistics
    • Actuarial Science

    Background:

    • The Office of the Actuary (OotA) provides mortality forecasts to address future uncertainty.
    • Official forecasts use specific components and assumptions that require evaluation.
    • Stochastic parametric models offer a method for approximating and analyzing these forecasts.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To identify components and assumptions of official U.S. Social Security Administration mortality forecasts.
    • To approximate official forecasts using stochastic parametric models.
    • To evaluate the statistical validity of official mortality forecast intervals.

    Main Methods:

    • Identification of components and assumptions in OotA mortality forecasts.
    • Approximation of official forecasts using stochastic parametric models.
    Keywords:
    AmericasDeath RateDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesError SourcesEstimation TechnicsEvaluationEvaluation ReportMeasurementModels, TheoreticalMortalityNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastProbabilityResearch MethodologySex FactorsStatistical StudiesStudiesUnited States

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Estimation of model parameters using historical mortality data (1972-1985).
  • Derivation of statistical intervals and comparison with official high-low intervals.

    • Main Results:

    • Analysis of data from 1972 to 1985 was performed.
    • Official mortality forecast intervals for ages 45-70 (males and females) demonstrated approximately 95% accuracy.
    • For ages outside this range, the accuracy of official intervals was significantly less than 95%.

    Conclusions:

    • Stochastic parametric models can effectively approximate and evaluate official mortality forecasts.
    • The official forecast intervals are statistically sound for middle-aged adults (45-70).
    • There is a need to improve the accuracy of mortality forecast intervals for other age groups.