A survey of Census Bureau population projection methods

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Population Studies
• Forecasting Science

Background:

• The U.S. Census Bureau employs diverse forecasting traditions for population projections.
• These include demographic accounting, judgmental, time series, deterministic, and explanatory methods.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review existing population projection methodologies used by the U.S. Census Bureau.
• To describe current national and state-level projection techniques.
• To propose novel hybrid forecasting approaches.

Main Methods:

• Review of established population projection traditions.
• Analysis of current U.S. Census Bureau national and state projection methods.
• Development of hybrid models, including demographic-time series and economic-demographic approaches.

Main Results:

• Identified five distinct forecasting traditions informing U.S. Census Bureau methods.
• Detailed current practices for national and sub-national population projections.
• Proposed innovative hybrid methods for enhanced fertility and migration projections.

Conclusions:

• Existing projection methods offer a foundation but can be improved.
• Hybrid approaches integrating different forecasting traditions show promise for greater accuracy.
• Cross-disciplinary parallels in forecasting may offer further insights.