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Modelling regional population growth in China.
Mathematical Population Studies
|January 1, 1997
Summary
This study introduces a multiregional population model for China, projecting provincial population trends. Regional variations show some areas peaking early while others experience sustained growth.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Geospatial Analysis
Background:
- Accurate population projections are crucial for regional planning.
- Understanding internal migration and demographic shifts is key to China's development.
- Existing models may not fully capture provincial-level dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a novel multiregional population model.
- To generate consistent provincial-level population projections for China.
- To analyze future demographic trends across Chinese provinces.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a forward demographic rates-based multiregional population model.
- Incorporated multiregional population accounts and external migration data (emigration rates, immigration flows).
- Generated population projections for China at the provincial level from 1987 to 2087.
Main Results:
- The national population trend is an aggregate of diverse regional trends.
- Provinces like Zhejiang are projected to peak population early in the 21st century.
- Provinces like Xinjiang are expected to experience continuous population growth in the first half of the 21st century.
Conclusions:
- Regional demographic trajectories in China are highly heterogeneous.
- The developed model provides a robust framework for sub-national population forecasting.
- Future population distribution will be shaped by distinct regional growth patterns.