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Net migration estimation in an extended, multiregional gravity model.

D K Foot, W J Milne

    Journal of Regional Science
    |February 1, 1984
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study analyzes Canadian interprovincial migration using an integrated econometric framework. Results show "push" factors dominate most provinces, but Atlantic Canada experiences "pull" forces, influenced by wages, unemployment, and Quebec

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Demography
    • Regional Science

    Background:

    • Understanding interprovincial migration patterns is crucial for Canadian regional development and policy.
    • Previous models often analyzed provinces in isolation, failing to capture systemic interdependencies.
    • The need for an integrated framework to analyze migration flows across all 10 Canadian provinces was identified.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop and apply a multi-regional econometric framework for analyzing net migration in Canada.
    • To investigate the factors driving interprovincial migration decisions across Canadian provinces.
    • To assess the interdependence of migration decisions within an integrated system.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of a multi-regional framework based on an extended gravity model.
    Keywords:
    AmericasCanadaDemographic AnalysisDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesEconomic ModelEmployment StatusEstimation TechnicsMathematical ModelMigrationMigration, InternalModels, TheoreticalMultiregional AnalysisNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPolitical FactorsPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyUnemploymentWages

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  • Application of constrained econometric estimation techniques to ensure system-wide requirements.
  • Estimation using official Canadian data spanning the 1960s and 1970s.

    • Main Results:

    • The 'push' factor (factors encouraging out-migration from a province) predominates interprovincial migration for most Canadian provinces.
    • Net migration to the Atlantic provinces is influenced by 'pull' factors (factors attracting migrants to a province) from other regions.
    • Wage rates, unemployment levels, and political disturbances in Quebec significantly impact interprovincial migration flows.

    Conclusions:

    • The integrated framework successfully models provincial migration interdependence.
    • Migration drivers vary regionally, with distinct push and pull dynamics observed across Canada.
    • Economic and political factors play a significant role in shaping Canadian interprovincial migration patterns.