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Multiregional estimation of gross internal migration flows.

D K Foot, W J Milne

    International Regional Science Review
    |January 1, 1989
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study introduces a multiregional migration model, accounting for economic interdependence between regions. The findings suggest that net migration models may not always be empirically sound, highlighting the importance of gross migration analysis.

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Demography
    • Econometrics

    Background:

    • Internal migration is a key demographic process influencing regional economies.
    • Previous models often used net migration, potentially overlooking complex interregional dynamics.
    • Understanding gross migration flows is crucial for accurate economic and demographic analysis.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop and estimate a multiregional model for gross internal migration flows.
    • To incorporate economic interdependence across regions using an adding-up constraint.
    • To assess the empirical validity of net migration models compared to gross migration models.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed a multiregional model for gross internal migration.
    • Imposed a non-stochastic adding-up constraint to ensure consistency of migration flows.
    Keywords:
    AmericasCanadaDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesEstimation TechnicsEvaluationGeographic FactorsMigrationModels, TheoreticalMultiregional AnalysisNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyTime Factors

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  • Employed an iterated system estimation technique for parameter estimation.
  • Estimated the model using Canadian provincial data from 1962-1986.

    • Main Results:

    • The model successfully captures the interdependence of economic factors across regions.
    • Parameter estimates were found to be asymptotically consistent and efficient.
    • The analysis revealed potential limitations in the empirical justification of net migration models.
    • Gross migration flows provide a more comprehensive understanding of interregional dynamics.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed multiregional model offers a robust framework for analyzing gross internal migration.
    • Net migration models may oversimplify migration patterns and their economic drivers.
    • Future research should prioritize gross migration analysis for more accurate policy implications.