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Fertility and development: evidence from Brazil.
Joseph E Potter1, Carl P Schmertmann, Suzana M Cavenaghi
1Population Research Center, 1800 Main Building, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712. joe@prc.utexas.edu
Demography
|December 11, 2002
Summary
Declining fertility in Brazil is strongly linked to improvements in social and economic conditions. This study analyzed census data to show how development impacts fertility rates over time.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Brazilian Studies
Background:
- Fertility rates have historically declined with socioeconomic development.
- Understanding the nuances of this relationship in diverse national contexts is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between changes in development indicators and fertility trends in Brazil.
- To examine how this relationship evolves over time using historical census data.
Main Methods:
- Utilized microdata from Brazilian demographic censuses (1960-1991).
- Aggregated data into 518 microregions for consistent spatial analysis.
- Employed cross-sectional and fixed-effects models to assess fertility-development links.
Main Results:
- Identified strong and consistent correlations between declining fertility and improved social and economic circumstances.
- Demonstrated that changes in development indicators are significantly associated with fertility changes.
- Found evidence that the fertility-development relationship is dynamic and shifts over time.
Conclusions:
- Socioeconomic development is a key driver of fertility decline in Brazil.
- Policy interventions aimed at improving living conditions likely impact fertility rates.
- The study underscores the interconnectedness of demographic shifts and societal progress.