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Methods of compliance evaluation for ocean outfall design and analysis.
Mukhtasor1, L M Lye, J J Sharp
1Faculty of Ocean Technology Sepuluh November Institute of Technology, ITS Surabaya, 60111, Indonesia.
Environmental Management
|December 17, 2002
Summary
Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) remains the best method for ocean outfall analysis. Simpler probabilistic methods like AFOSM and MFOSM show limitations in accurately predicting failure probabilities for sewage discharge compliance.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Engineering
- Water Quality Management
- Probabilistic Modeling
Background:
- Ocean outfall design must meet probabilistic water quality standards for sewage discharge.
- Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is a common but computationally intensive method for evaluating outfall compliance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate simpler, less computer-intensive probabilistic methods for ocean outfall analysis.
- Compare the accuracy of Mean First-Order Second-Moment (MFOSM) and Advance First-Order Second-Moment (AFOSM) methods against MCS.
Main Methods:
- Case study using data from the Spaniard's Bay Outfall, Newfoundland.
- Application and comparison of MFOSM, AFOSM, and MCS for failure probability analysis.
Main Results:
- AFOSM approximated failure probability well for remote points but MFOSM was better for initial dilutions.
- The accuracy of MFOSM and AFOSM varied depending on the complexity of the performance function.
Conclusions:
- AFOSM is not recommended for ocean outfall failure analysis due to computational demands.
- MCS is the preferred method for ocean outfall failure analysis due to its flexibility and accuracy with available data.