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Related Experiment Videos

Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty.

Craig R Fox1, Yuval Rottenstreich

  • 1Anderson School of Management, University of California at Los Angeles, 90095-1481, USA. craig.fox@anderson.ucla.edu

Psychological Science
|May 14, 2003
PubMed
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Likelihood judgments are influenced by how possibilities are framed, leading to biased probability estimates. This framing effect, known as partition dependence, impacts decision-making by favoring specific ignorance priors.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Probability Theory

Background:

  • Human probability judgments often deviate from normative models.
  • The concept of an ignorance prior, assigning equal probability to all outcomes, is a key factor in understanding these deviations.
  • Subjective partitioning of possibilities influences the perceived state space.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how subjective partitioning of possibilities affects likelihood judgments.
  • To demonstrate the impact of framing on probability estimation through the lens of ignorance priors.
  • To empirically validate the phenomenon of partition dependence in judgment and decision-making.

Main Methods:

  • Four experimental studies were conducted.
  • Participants were presented with probability judgment tasks framed in different ways (case vs. class partitions).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Likelihood judgments were analyzed for systematic biases toward specific ignorance priors.

    • Main Results:

    • Likelihood judgments were consistently biased toward the ignorance prior implied by the subjective partition.
    • Framing a question about the hottest day of the week as a two-fold partition (Sunday hotter vs. not hotter) led to a 1/2 prior bias.
    • Framing the same question as a seven-fold partition (which day is hottest) led to a 1/7 prior bias.

    Conclusions:

    • The subjective partition of possibilities significantly influences probability judgments.
    • Decision-makers exhibit partition dependence, showing systematic biases toward ignorance priors dictated by the framing of the problem.
    • Understanding framing effects is crucial for accurate assessment of subjective probabilities and decision-making research.