Prognostic factors for the survival of patients with AIDS cholangiopathy

AIDS cholangiopathy, once considered to have extremely poor prognosis, is now rarely fatal. This study was designed to assess the survival of patients with AIDS cholangiopathy and investigate prognostic variables, especially in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

Ninety-four patients with AIDS cholangiopathy were diagnosed at the San Francisco General Hospital from 1983 to 2001. The mortality status, demographic and clinical variables, and ERCP results were collected through death certificates, chart review, and endoscopic reports.

The median survival time from the diagnosis of AIDS and AIDS cholangiopathy was 23 and 9 months, respectively. HAART significantly improved the mortality of patients with AIDS cholangiopathy (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.02-0.35). The presence or history of any opportunistic infection involving the digestive tract, lung, eye, nervous system, skin, or systemic involvement at the time when AIDS cholangiopathy was diagnosed was an indicator of poor prognosis (HR = 3.24, 95% CI = 1.45-7.26); this was especially true for cryptosporidial infection (HR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.24-3.38). Patients with high serum ALP levels, especially greater than 1000 IU/L or eight times the normal value (HR = 2.69, 95% CI = 1.10-6.60), tended to have a shorter life expectancy than those with normal or slightly elevated serum ALP levels. CD4 lymphocyte counts, type of cholangiopathy, and the performance of sphincterotomy were not correlated with the survival of patients with AIDS cholangiopathy.

HAART administration most likely accounts for the recent dramatic improvement in survival of patients with AIDS cholangiopathy. Underlying immunosuppressive status, reflected by the presence or history of any opportunistic infections, is associated with a worse outcome. Serum ALP levels might be a good clinical indicator for the prognosis of patients with AIDS cholangiopathy.