Developing and testing a model to predict outcomes of organizational change

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Management
• Decision Science
• Organizational Psychology

Background:

• Healthcare decisions often lack sufficient research evidence.
• Expert knowledge pooling can generate theories and predictions in evidence-scarce areas.
• Predicting the success of quality improvement initiatives is crucial for healthcare advancement.

Purpose of the Study:

• To systematically build expert models with high predictive and explanatory value using the Integrative Group Process.
• To present a model for predicting the success of quality improvement initiatives: the Swedish Organizational Change Model.
• To identify key factors influencing the success of organizational change in healthcare.

Main Methods:

• The Integrative Group Process for systematic expert model development.
• Development and testing of the Swedish Organizational Change Model.
• Empirical validation of the predictive accuracy of the organizational change model.

Main Results:

• The Integrative Group Process facilitates the creation of robust expert models.
• The Swedish Organizational Change Model identifies 11 critical factors for successful improvement.
• The model accurately predicts a high proportion of both successful and unsuccessful quality improvement initiatives.

Conclusions:

• Expert models can enhance evidence-based healthcare decision-making.
• The Swedish Organizational Change Model serves as a diagnostic tool for improvement efforts.
• The model aids in assessing organizational potential and prioritizing quality improvement initiatives.