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Updated: Jul 28, 2026
12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Risk modeling, assessment, and management of lahar flow threat
M F Leung1, J R Santos, Y Y Haimes
1Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Virginia, USA.
Summary
Mount Pinatubo
Area of Science:
- Volcanology and Disaster Risk Management.
- Systemic Risk Analysis and Policy Integration.
- Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation Strategies.
Background:
- The 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption caused devastating lahar flows, posing significant post-eruption threats.
- Scientific data on lahar risks was available but often overlooked in policy-making due to competing agendas.
- Effective integration of scientific information into decision-making processes for disaster management is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To address challenges in integrating scientific data into policy for managing volcanic risks.
- To provide a modeling framework for effective risk assessment and policy evaluation.
- To enhance decision-making processes for natural disaster management.
Main Methods:
- Utilized systemic risk analysis and management principles.
- Employed hierarchical holographic modeling for a holistic risk approach.
- Applied statistical methods, multiobjective trade-off analysis, and conditional expected value for risk quantification and decision-making.
- Assessed impacts of multistage decisions and used ex post data for examples.
Main Results:
- Developed a comprehensive framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating risk management policies.
- Demonstrated the application of advanced analytical techniques to complex disaster scenarios.
- Provided a model for integrating scientific insights with policy objectives.
Conclusions:
- The proposed framework offers a robust approach to assessing and managing natural disaster risks.
- Effective risk management requires a holistic approach that integrates scientific evidence with policy considerations.
- The framework can guide agencies like the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) in making informed decisions for disaster preparedness and response.
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