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Related Experiment Videos

The dud-alternative effect in likelihood judgment.

Paul D Windschitl1, John R Chambers

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA. paul-windschitl@uiowa.edu

Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition
|January 23, 2004
PubMed
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Adding unlikely alternatives, or "duds," can paradoxically increase the perceived likelihood of a main event. This "dud-alternative effect" impacts judgments of uncertain events, especially under time pressure.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Typically, increasing the number of alternatives decreases the judged likelihood of a focal outcome.
  • This principle is observed in scenarios like predicting race winners with more competitors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of implausible alternatives (duds) on the judged likelihood of focal outcomes.
  • To explore the conditions and measurement methods that reveal the 'dud-alternative effect'.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted six experiments involving judgments of uncertainty about trivia facts and stochastic events.
  • Utilized nonnumeric likelihood measures, betting measures, and numeric likelihood measures.
  • Introduced time pressure in some experimental conditions.

Related Experiment Videos

Main Results:

  • The presence of implausible alternatives (duds) significantly increased the judged likelihood of the focal outcome.
  • The dud-alternative effect was reliably detected using nonnumeric likelihood and betting measures, but not numeric ones.
  • Time pressure amplified the magnitude of the dud-alternative effect.

Conclusions:

  • The findings support a contrast-effect account, where duds enhance the perceived evidence for the focal outcome.
  • This suggests that the way alternatives are framed can counterintuitively influence probability judgments.