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Mathematical methods in combatting terrorism
1University of Nebraska, Lincoln, USA. bharris@math.unl.edu
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|September 11, 2004
Summary
Mathematical and statistical methods can enhance counter-terrorism efforts by increasing efficiency. This preliminary report explores probabilistic risk analysis, randomization, and game theory for defense applications.
Area of Science:
- Operations Research
- Applied Mathematics
- Statistical Science
Background:
- Terrorist attacks pose complex challenges to national security.
- Existing law enforcement and intelligence efforts can be augmented by advanced analytical techniques.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the potential application of mathematical and statistical methods in counter-terrorism.
- To identify how these methods can improve the efficiency of defense strategies.
Main Methods:
- Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA), originally developed for nuclear reactor safety.
- Game Theory, a framework for strategic decision-making.
- Randomization techniques.
Main Results:
- Preliminary identification of mathematical and statistical approaches applicable to counter-terrorism.
- Conceptual framework for integrating these methods into defense strategies.
Conclusions:
- Mathematical and statistical methods offer promising avenues for enhancing counter-terrorism efficiency.
- Further research and development, including workshops, are planned to refine these methodologies.