Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Climate change impacts are sensitive to the concentration stabilization path.

Brian C O'Neill1, Michael Oppenheimer

  • 1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. oneill@iiasa.ac.at

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|November 17, 2004
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Climate change exacerbates disparities of energy resilience in New York City.

Nature communications·2026
Same author

US-CoastEX: Observation-based probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge and sea level extremes for the United States.

Scientific data·2025
Same author

Retrenchment under climate-driven risks in subsistence farming communities.

Population and environment·2025
Same author

Hurricane Ida's blackout-heatwave compound risk in a changing climate.

Nature communications·2025
Same author

Reinforcement learning-based adaptive strategies for climate change adaptation: An application for coastal flood risk management.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·2025
Same author

Labour market evolution is a key determinant of global agroeconomic and environmental futures.

Nature food·2025

Policies for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations must consider climate impacts from different emission pathways. Delaying reductions or overshooting targets increases the risk of dangerous climate change impacts on ecosystems.

Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Policy
  • Earth System Science

Background:

  • The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations.
  • Current policy analysis often focuses on mitigation costs, neglecting differential climate change impacts of various emission trajectories.
  • Stabilizing equivalent CO2 concentrations requires understanding diverse pathways and their transient behaviors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To derive emission and concentration pathways for stabilizing equivalent CO2 levels.
  • To compare the climate change impacts of different stabilization pathways, including those with temporary overshoot.
  • To assess the sensitivity of geophysical and ecological systems to these pathways.

Main Methods:

  • Derivation of multiple emission and concentration pathways leading to a target stabilization level.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Modeling of radiative forcing from all significant trace gases and aerosols for equivalent CO2 concentration.
  • Comparison of projected climate changes resulting from these pathways against the sensitivity thresholds of key environmental systems.

    • Main Results:

    • Identified various transient behaviors of equivalent CO2 concentration, including temporary overshoot.
    • Demonstrated that some physical and ecological systems exhibit significant sensitivity to the specific approach to stabilization.
    • Found that delayed emissions reductions and overshoot trajectories elevate the probability of dangerous climate change impacts.

    Conclusions:

    • The specific trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations significantly influences climate change impacts, not just the final stabilized level.
    • Certain geophysical and ecological systems are vulnerable to transient climate changes associated with specific stabilization pathways.
    • Policies aiming for climate stabilization should carefully consider the timing of emissions reductions and the potential risks of overshoot to avoid dangerous climate change.