PENDULUM--a guideline-based approach to the interpretation of STR mixtures

Several years ago, a theory to interpret mixed DNA profiles was proposed that included a consideration of peak area using the method of least squares. This method of mixture interpretation has not been widely adopted because of the complexity of the associated calculations. Most reporting officers (RO) employ an experience and judgement based approach to the interpretation of mixed DNA profiles. Here we present an approach that has formalised the thinking behind this experience and judgement. This has been written into a computer program package called PENDULUM. The program uses a least squares method to estimate the pre-amplification mixture proportion for two potential contributors. It then calculates the heterozygous balance for all of the potential sets of genotypes. A list of "possible" genotypes is generated using a set of heuristic rules. External to the programme the candidate genotypes may then be used to formulate likelihood ratios (LR) that are based on alternative casework propositions. The system does not represent a black box approach; rather it has been integrated into the method currently used by the reporting officers at the Forensic Science Service (FSS). The time saved in automating routine calculations associated with mixtures analysis is significant. In addition, the computer program assists in unifying reporting processes, thereby improving the consistency of reporting.