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[A study on early detection for seven infectious diseases].

Wei-Zhong Yang1, Hui-Xian Xing, Han-Zhang Wang

  • 1Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi = Zhonghua Liuxingbingxue Zazhi
|March 17, 2005
PubMed
Summary

This study establishes a control chart method for public health surveillance, setting alert thresholds at the 80th percentile for diseases like malaria and 90th for tuberculosis, ensuring sensitive and specific early warnings.

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health Surveillance
  • Epidemiology
  • Statistical Modeling

Context:

  • Effective public health surveillance requires sensitive and specific methods for early detection of disease outbreaks.
  • Historical infectious disease data is crucial for developing robust early warning systems.
  • Establishing scientifically validated alert thresholds is essential for timely public health interventions.

Purpose:

  • To develop and validate a practical, sensitive, and specific early warning system for public health surveillance.
  • To determine optimal alert thresholds for various infectious diseases using statistical methods.
  • To enhance the efficacy of early detection of epidemics through a control chart-based approach.

Summary:

  • A control chart method, utilizing five years of historical infectious disease data, was employed to detect outbreaks.

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  • Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value were calculated, with receiver-operating characteristic curves used for model selection.
  • Optimal alert thresholds were identified: 80th percentile for epidemic hemorrhagic fever, hepatitis A, dysentery, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, and malaria; 90th percentile for tuberculosis and measles.

    • Impact:

    • The established control chart method and alert thresholds demonstrate high efficacy in early warning for key infectious diseases.
    • Achieving over 90% sensitivity and specificity for several diseases at the 80th percentile threshold.
    • Provides a practical and scientifically sound framework for improving public health surveillance and response.