U.S. physician workforce forecasting: a tale of two states

Area of Science:

• Health Policy
• Medical Economics
• Healthcare Workforce Research

Background:

• Physician workforce forecasting has gained prominence, driven by concerns about national physician shortages.
• The Council on Graduate Medical Education's Sixteenth Report highlights the need for specialty- and geography-specific projections.
• Understanding regional and specialty impacts of projected shortages is critical for healthcare planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide a historical overview of US physician workforce forecasting over the past 25 years.
• To summarize and discuss findings from two state-specific physician supply and demand forecasts.
• To examine the utilization of these forecasts by stakeholders in policy and planning.

Main Methods:

• Review of historical physician workforce forecasting methodologies in the United States.
• Analysis of two distinct state-level studies forecasting physician supply and demand.
• Commentary on the influence of model assumptions on forecast interpretation.

Main Results:

• Summaries of findings from two state-specific physician workforce forecasting initiatives.
• Discussion of how specific model assumptions can complicate forecast interpretation.
• Examples of how state-level forecasts were applied by stakeholders.

Conclusions:

• State-specific physician workforce forecasts are essential for targeted policy development.
• Critical evaluation of forecasting models is necessary to ensure accurate interpretation.
• Effective utilization of forecasts by stakeholders can inform healthcare resource allocation.