The pediatric dental workforce in 2016 and beyond

Area of Science:

• Oral Health
• Public Health
• Health Workforce Analysis

Background:

• Childhood caries presents a significant oral and general health challenge, disproportionately affecting certain populations.
• The adequacy of the pediatric dentist workforce is a critical concern for addressing this issue.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the current and future adequacy of the pediatric dentist supply in relation to projected demand.
• To analyze factors influencing pediatric dentist supply and demand under various scenarios.

Main Methods:

• A 2017 online survey collected baseline practice data from 2,546 pediatric dentists (39.1% response rate).
• A workforce simulation model utilized survey data and other sources to forecast supply and demand.
• Scenarios included current rates, increased graduate numbers, delayed retirement, and increased access to care for underserved populations.

Main Results:

• Under current trends, the pediatric dentist supply is expected to increase by 4,030 full-time equivalent (FTE) dentists by 2030, while demand is projected to rise by only 140 FTE dentists.
• Hypothetical scenarios showed supply increases of 4,690 FTEs with more graduates and 4,320 FTEs with delayed retirement.
• Increased access for underserved children or greater service provision by pediatric dentists could raise demand by 2,100 FTEs or 10,470 FTEs, respectively.

Conclusions:

• The study indicates that the supply of pediatric dentists is growing at a faster rate than demand.
• Future demand could increase substantially if underserved children gain better access to care or if pediatric dentists provide a larger share of services.
• Policy changes to reduce access barriers and encourage early dental care are recommended.