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Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation.

Nils Chr Stenseth1, Noelle I Samia, Hildegunn Viljugrein

  • 1Department of Biology, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway. n.c.stenseth@bio.uio.no

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|August 23, 2006
PubMed
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Warmer springs and wetter summers increase Yersinia pestis prevalence in gerbils, raising plague outbreak risks. Climate change may further elevate these threats in Central Asia.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Bacteriology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague, endemic in Central Asian gerbil populations.
  • Plague outbreaks have historically emerged from this region.
  • Understanding environmental drivers is crucial for predicting disease spread.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between climate variables and Yersinia pestis prevalence in great gerbils.
  • To assess the impact of climate change on future plague risk.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of long-term field data (1949-1995).
  • Application of novel statistical techniques.
  • Correlation of Yersinia pestis prevalence with spring and summer climate data.

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Main Results:

  • Increased Yersinia pestis prevalence is strongly linked to warmer springs and wetter summers.
  • A 1°C spring temperature increase predicts over a 50% rise in prevalence.
  • Favorable climatic conditions for plague have persisted and may intensify with climate change.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change is likely to increase the risk of plague outbreaks in Central Asia.
  • Human proximity to rodent populations heightens disease transmission potential.
  • Environmental monitoring is essential for proactive plague control strategies.