Modeling the Entrepeñas Reservoir.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Hydrology
• Water Resource Management

Background:

• The Entrepeñas Reservoir, a monomictic water body on the River Tagus in Spain, experiences natural thermal stratification.
• Understanding and predicting the thermocline depth is crucial for reservoir management and water quality assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a feasible model for predicting the thermocline depth in the Entrepeñas Reservoir during its natural thermal stratification period.
• To integrate various physical factors influencing thermal stratification into a predictive model.

Main Methods:

• Collected in-situ measurements of temperature and electrical conductivity profiles.
• Utilized meteorological data and specific reservoir parameters for model calibration.
• Applied and integrated several established models from existing literature.
• Developed a software package for daily, year-long predictions of thermocline depth and water temperature profiles.

Main Results:

• The developed model achieved a prediction error of less than 6% for thermocline depth when validated against real data.
• The model demonstrated an accuracy of 2 degrees C for predicting water temperature profiles.
• The software package provides daily predictions over a 1-year period.

Conclusions:

• The established model offers a reliable tool for forecasting thermocline dynamics in the Entrepeñas Reservoir.
• Accurate prediction of thermocline depth and water temperature profiles supports effective water resource management.
• The model's high accuracy highlights the potential for its application in similar monomictic reservoirs.