Approaches to the evaluation of outbreak detection methods

Area of Science:

• Public Health Surveillance
• Epidemiology
• Biosecurity

Background:

• Numerous methods exist for early detection of infectious disease outbreaks, whether natural or bioterrorism-related.
• A lack of standardized frameworks hinders the evaluation and comparability of these diverse detection methods.
• Standardized evaluation is crucial for assessing the utility of outbreak detection techniques.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review current approaches for evaluating outbreak detection methods.
• To propose a conceptual framework for standardized evaluation.
• To inform recommendations for future evaluation methodologies.

Main Methods:

• Systematic literature review of recently published studies evaluating outbreak detection methods.
• Categorization of identified evaluation methods based on common features.
• Analysis of approaches used in public health surveillance data.

Main Results:

• Significant variation exists in the evaluation approaches for outbreak detection methods.
• Four primary evaluation approaches were identified: Descriptive, Derived, Epidemiological, and Simulation.
• A basic framework for evaluation is proposed, emphasizing the use of multiple approaches.

Conclusions:

• The heterogeneity in performance evaluation underscores the need for standardized methods to enhance study comparability.
• No single evaluation approach is sufficient to meet all assessment requirements.
• The proposed cornerstone evaluation approaches contribute to internal/external validity and comparability, recommending their incorporation into future performance assessment guidelines.