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Related Experiment Videos

Facing ambiguous threats.

Michael A Roberto1, Richard M J Bohmer, Amy C Edmondson

  • 1Bryant University, Simthfield, Rhode Island, USA. mroberto@bryant.edu

Harvard Business Review
|November 30, 2006
PubMed
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Organizations often ignore ambiguous threats, like NASA's foam strike incident, leading to disaster. Proactive strategies involving teamwork, signal detection, and experimentation are crucial for managing risks before crises emerge.

Area of Science:

  • Organizational Behavior
  • Risk Management
  • Crisis Response

Background:

  • The Columbia space shuttle disaster highlighted potential organizational failures in responding to ambiguous threats.
  • Some attributed NASA's response to the foam strike to management incompetence.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze NASA's response to the foam strike as a case of ambiguous threat management.
  • To propose strategies for organizations to effectively manage ambiguous threats before crises occur.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of the Columbia space shuttle accident and the preceding foam strike incident.
  • Examination of organizational behavior patterns in response to ambiguous signals.
  • Development of a framework for proactive risk detection and response.

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Main Results:

  • The foam strike exemplifies an ambiguous threat, where potential harm is unclear, leading organizations to discount or ignore risks.
  • Organizations that effectively manage ambiguous threats develop and practice rigorous detection and response capabilities beforehand.
  • Proactive strategies include honing teamwork, recognizing weak signals, and encouraging "what if" questioning in a safe environment.

Conclusions:

  • Ignoring ambiguous threats can have catastrophic consequences.
  • Firms must establish robust systems for identifying and responding to potential risks prior to a crisis.
  • Implementing practices for teamwork, signal amplification, and low-cost experimentation can build resilience against unforeseen threats.