Does Static-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders?

Area of Science:

• Forensic Psychology
• Criminology
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Static-99 is a widely used actuarial tool for estimating sexual offender recidivism risk.
• Concerns exist regarding Static-99's ability to accurately account for age-related declines in recidivism risk.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the impact of advanced age on Static-99 risk scores and sexual recidivism rates.
• To determine if Static-99 accurately reflects recidivism risk across different age groups of sexual offenders.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of data from 3,425 sexual offenders across 8 samples.
• Comparison of Static-99 scores between younger and older offenders.
• Assessment of Static-99's accuracy in predicting recidivism across age groups.

Main Results:

• Older offenders consistently achieved lower Static-99 scores than younger offenders.
• Static-99 demonstrated moderate accuracy in estimating relative recidivism risk across all age groups.
• Older offenders exhibited lower sexual recidivism rates than predicted by their Static-99 risk categories.

Conclusions:

• Advanced age is associated with lower-than-expected sexual recidivism rates for a given Static-99 score.
• Evaluators should incorporate advanced age as a modifying factor in risk assessments using Static-99.
• Further refinement of risk assessment tools may be needed to better capture age-related changes in recidivism risk.